WEEKLY MARKET WRAP | WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, 10 JULY 2026
DALAL STREET ENDS WEEK ON A HIGH AS TCS Q1 RESULTS FIRE UP IT STOCKS; BUT A WEEK OF EXTRAORDINARY DRAMA — CEASEFIRE DECLARED DEAD, IRAN MISSILES FLY, CRUDE SPIKES 5%, AND MARKETS SOMEHOW HOLD
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The week ending July 10, 2026 will be studied in financial history books for years to come. In the span of five trading sessions, Indian and global markets witnessed a ceasefire being declared dead by the US president, Iranian missiles striking American military installations across Gulf nations, crude oil swinging nearly 10% from trough to peak and back again, South Korea's Kospi crashing nearly 8% in a single session, Samsung Electronics — which reported a 19-fold profit surge — still seeing its shares plunge 8.7%, and TCS delivering a blockbuster earnings beat that powered Indian IT stocks to their best single-day gain in weeks. Through it all, the Sensex ended the week higher than it began, and the Nifty finished Friday above 24,200 — a testament to the extraordinary resilience that domestic institutional flows, a TCS earnings catalyst, and a fragmentary return of diplomatic optimism have lent to Indian equities even in the face of the most chaotic week the market has seen since the conflict's February outbreak.
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INDIAN MARKETS — WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
The week began powerfully. On Monday, July 7, the Nifty closed at 24,430.35, up 159.50 points or 0.66%, while the Sensex added 521.16 points or 0.67% to 78,285.07. Bank Nifty gained 0.61% to 58,291.50 and India VIX held near multi-month lows at 11.82. Crucially, the Nifty closed back above its 200-day moving average for the first time since late February — a widely watched technical signal that suggested the market was structurally recovering from the conflict-driven damage of the preceding months.
Tuesday brought the first jolt of the week. Asian shares finished weaker, with South Korea's Kospi down 4.9% to 7,656.31, and Samsung Electronics falling 7.7% after posting a huge jump in operating income, as foreign funds shifted out of the stock. SK Hynix was down 6.7% with a $28 billion US stock sale on deck. The contagion spilled into Indian IT stocks, dragging the broader market into the red. Wednesday delivered the most dramatic single-headline event of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply after US President Donald Trump told the NATO summit in Turkey that the ceasefire with Iran is "over" amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East that sent oil prices surging.
Thursday saw the tide begin to turn once more. At the closing bell on Thursday, the BSE Sensex gained 238.22 points, or 0.31%, to settle at 76,741.82, while the NSE Nifty 50 advanced 80.75 points, or 0.34%, to close at 23,962.80. The market managed to hold above the critical 23,800–23,900 support zone that analysts had flagged as pivotal. The Nifty formed an inverted hammer candlestick on Thursday, indicating that the market is currently taking a pause after recent volatility rather than entering a fresh downtrend.
Friday delivered the knockout blow to the bears. Sensex rose 828 points or 1.08% to 77,569.39, and the Nifty50 settled 244.10 points or 1.02% higher at 24,206.90. A sharp rise in global equities due to a rebound in chip stocks also supported the domestic indices. Jio Financial Services emerged as the biggest gainer on the Nifty 50, rising 3.90% to close at ₹242.48. HDFC Life Insurance followed with a 2.84% gain to ₹567.50, while Adani Enterprises advanced 2.41% to ₹3,157.80. Among other notable gainers, Reliance Industries climbed 2.36%, SBI Life Insurance added 2.29%, and Axis Bank rose 2.04%. Technology stocks also remained in demand, with Tech Mahindra gaining 2.01%, while Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech ended the session with healthy gains.
On the sectoral front, except Nifty FMCG, all other indices ended in the green. The Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Realty gained more than 3% each. The Nifty IT index added 1.96%. Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Midsmall IT and Telecom index was today's top gainer, rising 2.20%, followed by the Nifty IT index which was up 1.88% and the Nifty Metal index which rose 1.69%. In the broader market, the Nifty MidCap and the Nifty SmallCap ended 1.4% and 1.55% higher respectively.
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TCS Q1 FY27 RESULTS: THE EARNINGS SEASON OPENER THAT MARKET NEEDED
The single most important domestic event of the week was the quarterly results announcement from Tata Consultancy Services, India's largest IT services company and a bellwether for the country's $250 billion software export industry. TCS managed to beat analyst estimates on growth, even as it saw revenue from artificial intelligence deals growing by over 13% year-on-year. The Mumbai-headquartered firm reported a net profit of ₹13,349 crore for the first quarter of 2026-27, up 4.6% from ₹12,760 crore in the year-ago period. TCS' revenue grew 13.9% in reported terms at ₹72,275 crore compared to ₹63,437 crore for Q1FY26.
CEO K Krithivasan said: "Q1 FY27 reflects continued growth momentum and the strength of our strategic positioning, despite geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. We delivered a strong order book of $9.5 billion, including a marquee AI-led transformation deal with SKF, while continuing to add clients across key revenue bands and scaling our AI business to a $2.6 billion annualized revenue run rate."
Revenue growth was largely supported by stronger spending from banking clients, continued execution of large digital transformation programmes and favourable currency movements, which increased the value of overseas earnings. TCS maintained an operating margin of 24% and a net margin of 19.2%, indicating its ability to protect profitability despite pricing pressure and longer client decision cycles. The company also announced an interim dividend of ₹12 per equity share, with July 15 as the record date and July 31 as the payment date.
The TCS results provided the narrative anchor that Indian equity markets had been craving — proof that despite five months of geopolitical disruption, elevated energy costs, and currency volatility, India's flagship export sector was not only surviving but accelerating its transition into the AI era.
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ASIAN MARKETS — WEEKLY REVIEW
Hong Kong and Seoul both rose on Friday, but the week ended with an 11.1-percentage-point gap that told a less bullish story: the Hang Seng gained 3.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI lost 7.6%. The split was wider inside technology, as the Hang Seng Tech climbed 4.95% while SK Hynix fell 10.1% and Samsung Electronics lost 7.9%.
Monday saw Asian markets open with Kospi leading regional losses, down over 4% as Samsung and SK Hynix slid despite Samsung beating profit forecasts. Nikkei 225 fell approximately 1.2% to 68,883. Shanghai Composite declined 0.6% to 4,017, while Hang Seng held up better at plus 0.4% to 23,708.
Tuesday was the week's most brutal day for the region. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 declined 2.1% to 68,256.96. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong declined 0.7% to 23,444.20, while the Shanghai Composite index gave up 1.3% to 3,990.25. In Seoul, the Kospi dropped as much as 8% but recovered some losses to close 4.9% lower at 7,656.31. Shares in Samsung Electronics slumped 7.7% even after it announced its operating income surged 19-fold to 89.4 trillion won ($58.7 billion) in the last quarter while its revenue more than doubled.
By Thursday, the tide had turned. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.4% higher, while South Korea's Kospi rose 0.62% in choppy trade. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.7%, while mainland China's CSI 300 closed 2.5% higher.
On Friday, Asian markets ended broadly higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.25% to 68,593.95 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumping 1.25% to 24,329.81. Taiwan's cash and derivatives markets were shut because of Typhoon Bavi, leaving TSMC and the island's chip complex without a Friday round of price discovery.
The week's performance across Asia underscores a market in the grip of a rotation story. SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung warned of a worst-ever global memory chip shortage in 2027, saying demand will top supply for at least another decade, even with expansions.The South Korean chipmaker's US Nasdaq debut saw its shares jump 13.3% amid overwhelming demand — the ADR offering was more than seven times oversubscribed — a vivid illustration of the bifurcation between investors who are selling Korea-listed shares and those clamouring for dollar-denominated AI chip exposure.
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AMERICAN MARKETS — WEEKLY REVIEW
Wall Street delivered a week of historic extremes. The Dow hit a new all-time record above 53,000 on Monday, only to crash nearly 600 points on Wednesday when Trump declared the ceasefire dead, before recovering on Thursday and Friday to end the week broadly mixed.
On Monday, July 6, the S&P 500 gained 0.72% to end at 7,537.43, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.12% to 26,121.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 155.84 points, or 0.29%, for a record close of 53,055.91.
Tuesday turned ugly for technology. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% even though the majority of stocks within the index rose. The drops for stocks in the artificial-intelligence industry dragged the Nasdaq composite down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2%.
Wednesday brought the week's most dramatic session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply after Trump told the NATO summit in Turkey that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." The 30-stock index dropped 576.76 points, or 1.09%, to end at 52,348.39. The S&P 500 was down 0.28%, closing at 7,482.71. The Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend and rose 0.2% to settle at 25,870.65. International Brent crude futures settled up 5.43% at $78.19 per barrel.
Thursday brought a powerful rebound. Stocks rose on Thursday, bolstered by a jump in semiconductors and a fall in oil prices. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.30% to 26,206.89, while the S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 7,543.64. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 139.02 points, or 0.27%, to 52,487.41. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbed 2.5%, led by a 4.5% gain in Micron Technology's stock. Sandisk's stock also popped 7.6%.
Oil prices and bond yields eased amid signs of continued tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed US-Iran hostilities, providing a boost to the financial sector, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and American Express all rising. Meta surged 4% after announcing it will target production of its own AI chip by September.
Friday's Wall Street session closed modestly higher, with the Nasdaq Futures pointing to gains of 0.65% as chip stocks continued to find buyers following SK Hynix's oversubscribed US listing. For the week overall, US markets logged a period of extraordinary intraday volatility against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and early Q1 earnings beats — with the Dow ending the week broadly flat and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq making modest net gains driven by the AI and semiconductor trade.
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CRUDE OIL — THE WEEK'S DEFINING ROLLERCOASTER
No asset class told the story of this week's extraordinary drama more vividly than crude oil, which staged one of its most violent weekly swings of the entire five-month Iran conflict.
The week began with Brent near $72–73 per barrel following the prior week's relief rally driven by ceasefire optimism and Hormuz re-opening progress. Then, on Wednesday, oil prices surged after President Trump threatened to bomb Iran and reimpose the US naval blockade in retaliation for attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 4.4% to close at $73.52 per barrel. Brent futures jumped 5.2% to settle at $78.02.
By Friday, however, Brent crude oil slipped to around $75.5 per barrel but remained on track for a weekly gain of about 4.7% as renewed US-Iran tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and raised supply concerns. Markets continued to monitor developments after fresh attacks strained the ceasefire, although talks between Washington and Tehran are expected to continue.
The United Arab Emirates increased crude production to a record high last month, highlighting efforts by Gulf producers to maintain exports despite ongoing uncertainty. The IEA cautioned that a prolonged escalation could undermine plans to rebuild global oil inventories later this year.
For India, Brent ending the week near $75–76 per barrel represents a materially better situation than the $98–126 range seen during the conflict's peak from March to May. However, the 4.7% weekly gain — reversing much of the prior two weeks' relief rally — is a pointed reminder that the geopolitical risk premium in oil has not been extinguished. Domestic crude oil tracking data shows crude at $76.53 per barrel, while petrol remains ₹111.21 per litre and diesel ₹97.83 per litre in Mumbai. Any sustained re-escalation that pushes Brent back above $85–90 would meaningfully revive inflation concerns and rupee pressure that had been receding through June and early July.
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GOLD AND SILVER IN INDIA
Precious metals had a broadly range-bound week in India, caught between competing forces: renewed geopolitical risk from the Iran-US re-escalation providing safe-haven demand, while the partial resumption of peace talks and a relatively stable rupee limited upside.
On July 10, MCX gold for the August 5 contract opened at ₹1,45,200 per 10 grams, down ₹192 from the previous close of ₹1,45,392. MCX gold touched an intraday low of ₹1,44,750, down ₹642 or 0.44%, and a high of ₹1,45,356.
Today's gold price in India for 24 karat gold is ₹1,44,182 per 10 grams. Gold price in India for 22 karat gold is ₹1,32,167 per 10 grams. On a per-gram basis, today's gold price in India stands at ₹14,482 per gram for 24 karat gold and ₹13,275 per gram for 22 karat gold.
City-wise, gold rates in New Delhi are ₹14,460 per gram for 24K, ₹13,256 for 22K, and ₹10,849 for 18K. Gold rates in Mumbai are ₹14,445 per gram for 24K, ₹13,241 for 22K, and ₹10,834 for 18K. Gold rates in Chennai are ₹14,532 per gram for 24K, ₹13,321 for 22K, and ₹11,081 for 18K.
The price of silver in India today is ₹240 per gram and ₹2,40,000 per kilogram. Silver futures witnessed selling pressure in early trade, falling as much as 0.83% or ₹1,932 to hit an intraday low of ₹2,28,925 per kg. The white metal opened at ₹2,30,015, down ₹842 from previous close of ₹2,30,857.
The precious metals complex globally has been under intermittent pressure from Federal Reserve rate-hike concerns, with gold having retreated from its all-time highs near $4,500–4,600 per ounce to the $4,100–4,200 range. Gold eased back from a two-week high near $4,175–4,188 as investors await the FOMC minutes and monitor geopolitical developments. The medium-term case for gold remains intact given persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated inflation, with the $4,000 per ounce level acting as a floor of strong structural demand. Domestic Indian gold prices are holding above ₹1,44,000 per 10 grams — meaningfully below conflict-era peaks but still significantly elevated versus year-ago levels, reflecting both the residual safe-haven premium and the cumulative effect of rupee depreciation.
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CURRENCY MARKET — RUPEE AND KEY PAIRS
The Indian rupee navigated a turbulent week with measured resilience, helped by the RBI's continued forex market management and the moderating effect of domestic institutional flows on sentiment.
As of today, the USD/INR rate stands at 95.58, the EUR/INR at 108.82 (down 0.22%), the JPY/INR at 0.5895 (up 0.35%), and the GBP/INR at 127.8156 (down 0.34%).
The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to 161.7030 on July 10, with the Japanese yen strengthening past 161.5 per dollar on Friday, erasing all of its losses from earlier in the week as traders remained alert to the possibility of official intervention after the currency weakened to fresh 40-year lows. Japan's producer prices climbed 7.1% in June, marking the fastest annual increase since March 2023, reflecting persistent cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict and the yen's sharp depreciation.
In global currency markets, EUR/USD stood at 1.1430, GBP/USD at 1.3392, and the dollar index remained broadly firm on a combination of haven demand during the mid-week escalation and strong US labour market fundamentals.
The rupee's relative stability against the dollar at ₹95.33–95.58 this week, even as crude oil staged a 5% spike mid-week, is a credit to the RBI's active management — the central bank's reserve war chest of approximately $700 billion continues to provide a powerful deterrent to speculative attacks on the currency. However, a sustained re-escalation of the Iran conflict that drives Brent above $85 per barrel could test this defence more seriously in the weeks ahead.
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THE WEEK IN CONTEXT: RESILIENCE UNDER FIRE
The week of July 7–11, 2026 demonstrated perhaps more powerfully than any other since the conflict began that Indian markets have found a new equilibrium — one where the baseline expectation is that geopolitical crises will flare and recede, crude will spike and retreat, and diplomatic developments will surprise in both directions. The Nifty's ability to close the week above 24,200 after seeing 23,900 threatened mid-week is evidence of this new market maturity.
Three factors underpin this resilience. First, domestic institutional investors — primarily mutual funds flush with systematic investment plan inflows — have consistently bought equity on dips, providing a structural floor to the market even when FII flows turn negative. Second, the India macro story has genuinely improved: lower average crude prices versus the conflict's peak, a recovering rupee, an accommodative RBI, and a first-quarter earnings season that — if TCS is a guide — could deliver broad-based positive surprises. Third, the India-US trade framework, with its tariff reductions for key Indian export sectors, is beginning to show up in order book data and forward guidance from exporting companies.
The week also highlighted the risks that remain. The ceasefire architecture between the US and Iran remains remarkably fragile — one presidential statement at a NATO summit was enough to send Brent crude up 5% and the Dow down nearly 600 points in a single session. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a flashpoint, with shipping traffic still well below pre-conflict norms even during the periods of relative calm. And the Federal Reserve's hawkish tilt — underlined by its June meeting minutes, which stressed upside inflation risks — means that any sustained oil price recovery above $85–90 would quickly revive rate-hike fears that could derail the AI-led equity rally in the US and, by extension, FII sentiment toward Indian markets.
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WEEK AHEAD — KEY CATALYSTS FOR 14–18 JULY 2026
The coming week brings a packed calendar of market-moving events. TSMC is scheduled to release its delayed June sales data on Monday, July 13 and second-quarter results on Thursday, July 16 — results that will effectively determine whether the global semiconductor rally has fundamental legs or has been running on momentum alone. US inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index is due during the week and will be the single most important datapoint for Fed rate-hike expectations. In India, more Q1 FY27 earnings begin to flow in earnest — results from HDFC Bank, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Wipro are all due and will collectively set the tone for the broader IT sector's re-rating potential.
On geopolitics, the Qatari-mediated technical discussions between US and Iranian delegations are expected to resume following the period of mourning for Khamenei. Any signal of a credible new framework — particularly one that addresses the Strait of Hormuz control question definitively — could trigger the next leg of the crude oil decline and the corresponding Nifty recovery toward the 24,500–25,000 zone. Conversely, any collapse of these talks would rapidly re-establish the oil risk premium and likely see the Nifty test support at 23,800–23,900 once again.
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*All data as of market close on Friday, 10 July 2026. US markets were in session during compilation. Asian market data reflects Friday, 10 July 2026 closing levels. Gold, silver and crude oil prices reference July 10–11, 2026 market data. Currency rates reference from published July 10, 2026 data. TCS earnings data references Q1 FY27 results announced July 9, 2026. All prices are indicative and sourced from published market data platforms. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*