Shubh Laabh
Trump Iran War Oil Crisis: Looking into the current scenario of US – Israel v/s Iran war it looks like that Donald Trump has No plans, Iran’s strength was misjudged, and oil supplies were not expected to be disrupted. On February 18, when US President Donald Trump was deciding whether to attack Iran, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an interview that he was not worried that a war would affect oil supplies from the Middle East or cause major disruption in the oil market.
Wright said that even when Israel and the United States attacked Iran in June last year, the oil market was not significantly affected. He said that oil prices rose slightly at that time, but soon fell. Other Trump advisers privately held similar views, believing that the warnings were exaggerated and that Iran was unlikely to block the oil shipping lanes that carry about 20% of the world’s oil supply.
But this assessment appears to have been proven wrong in recent days. Iran has threatened to attack oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea route through which all ships leaving the Persian Gulf pass.
Ship movement halted in the Strait of Hormuz –
Following these threats from Iran, commercial shipping in the Gulf region has virtually come to a halt, pushing oil prices to $110 per barrel at one point, and attacks on oil tankers passing through the Persian Gulf pass is on.The Trump administration is now scrambling to find ways to contain the economic crisis, which has also led to a rise in gasoline prices in the US. The incident also suggests that Trump and his advisers misjudged Iran’s stance on the war, which views the conflict as an existential threat.
Iran’s response is more aggressive than expected –
Iran has responded with a far more aggressive response than during the 12-day war in June last year, launching missile and drone attacks on US military bases, cities in several Arab countries in the Middle East, and populated areas in Israel. The attacks forced US officials to quickly change several plans, evacuate embassies in some locations, and implement new policies to control rising petrol prices.Trump has no plan to end the war.
Following a closed-
door briefing by Trump administration officials to lawmakers on Wednesday, Democratic Senator Christopher Murphy of the US state of Connecticut wrote on social media that the administration had no plan to safely reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Some officials within the administration are frustrated that there appears to be no plan to end the war. However, they are avoiding speaking directly to President Trump, who has repeatedly stated that the military campaign has been a complete success.
Difference in Views –
Trump often talks about lofty goals, such as wanting a leader in Iran who will obey the United States. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth don’t talk like that. Pete Hegseth also said that the US has already suffered a setback in Iraq. He said the real objective is to weaken Iran’s missile power and military capabilities. If this is achieved, a path to ending the war could be found which views the conflict as an existential threat.
Iran’s response more aggressive –
Hegseth acknowledged that the Pentagon did not fully anticipate the severity of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on its neighbors, but he added that these actions could ultimately backfire on Iran. He said that it’s difficult to say with certainty whether Iran will respond in the same way, but such attacks were already expected. He said that these attacks by Iran suggest that the Iranian government is currently under considerable pressure.
Trump losses temper over the impact on oil supplies. Meanwhile, Trump also expressed his displeasure with the war’s impact on oil supplies. He told Fox News that the crews of oil tankers should “show some courage” and continue passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Iran War Oil Crisis
Some military advisers had warned before the war that Iran could respond very aggressively and consider the US-Israeli attack a threat to its existence. But some other advisers believed that if Iran’s top leadership were killed, their successors would be more pragmatic and would try to end the war.When Trump was told that the war could cause oil prices to rise, he acknowledged that this could happen, but downplayed it, calling it a short-term problem. He asked Energy Minister Chris Wright and Finance Minister Scott Bessant to have the necessary options ready to deal with oil prices if they rise. These options include providing political risk insurance to companies from the government and providing security to ships through the US Navy, but such naval escort arrangements have not yet been implemented.
Iran preparing to lay sea mines in Strait of Homruz –
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media on March 10 that the US Navy had safely escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. His post sent shockwaves through the oil market, and investors believed the situation was improving. But when other administration officials later said no such escort operation had taken place, Wright had to remove the post and the market became volatile again. Efforts to resume oil supplies are also being hampered by information from US intelligence agencies that Iran is preparing to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Although these plans are still in their early stages, they have alarmed the Trump administration. The US military said that it had targeted 16 Iranian ships near the Strait of Hormuz that were preparing to lay landmines.
Rising oil prices raise concerns –
Meanwhile, rising oil prices have also raised concerns among Republican leaders in Washington, who fear it could damage their economic policies with voters ahead of the midterm elections in November. Trump has also been saying publicly and privately that Venezuelan oil could help address the crisis. The administration announced a new refinery in Texas that could help boost oil supply and mitigate the long-term impact on the oil market caused by Iran. Some experts were also puzzled by how confident Trump was that oil supplies would continue, given that last year he had launched a military operation against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who had virtually halted shipping in the Red Sea with missile and drone attacks.
While announcing the attack on the Houthis in March last year, Trump had said that these attacks had caused billions of dollars of damage to the global economy. And They have necessary options ready to deal with oil prices if they rise. These options include providing political risk insurance to companies from the government
Inconsistent Trump –
Trump’s statements following the Iran war have been inconsistent. Sometimes he says the war could last more than a month, and sometimes he says it’s almost over. On the other hand, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have talked about three objectives in recent days.
- Destroy Iran’s missiles and its ability to launch them.
- Destroy missile manufacturing factories.
- Destroying Iran’s navy.
Experts believe that this could indicate that America is looking for a way to end the war soon. However, Trump warned in his press conference that if Iran tried to stop the world’s energy supply, America would take even tougher steps. Matthew Pottinger, the former national security adviser in the Trump administration, said Trump may still decide to prolong the war a little further. He said Trump does not want to have to fight another war later.
Is it really important for America to end the war –
For America, the need to find a way to end the war has increased because oil prices are rising rapidly and the US is using large quantities of expensive weapons. Pentagon officials told Congress in a closed-door hearing that approximately $5.6 billion worth of weapons had been used in the first two days of the war, a figure far higher than previously publicly disclosed.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials are still maintaining a tough stance, saying they will use their influence over the world’s oil supply to pressureize the US and Israel. Iran’s senior national security official, Ali Larijani, wrote on social media that the Strait of Hormuz will either become a path to peace and prosperity for all, or a path to defeat and suffering for those who want war.
