Heart risk calculators news: A study carried out recently has raised alarm over the efficacy of widely used heart disease risk calculators, revealing that they may be failing to identify a significant number of risk-bound Indians. The research was led by experts from the Govind Ballabh Pant Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, ESIC Medical College, and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, which concluded that nearly 80% of patients who eventually suffered heart attacks were not warned beforehand. 

Western units fall short

The study titled “Comparison of ASCVD Risk Prediction Models in STEMI: Insights from a South Asian Cohort,” analysed data from 4,975 patients who experienced heart attacks once. Researchers then evaluated five globally-recognised risk prediction tools, including the Framingham Risk Score, the ASCVD Risk Model 2013, WHO Risk charts, JBS-3 calculator and the PREVENT score. The researchers found stark inconsistencies, as some models identified around 20% of the patients as high-risk, while others, particularly the ASCVD 2013 model, flagged just 12.3%. The rest of the patients were left at low or moderate risk. 

Heart risk calculators news: Key researcher says results raise concerns

Dr Mohit Gupta, a key researcher involved in the study, said that the results underline a critical gap in preventive cardiology. He added, “When we apply Western Models to Indian patients, many are wrongly classified. Despite being physiologically high-risk, they are often labelled as low or moderate risk,” warning that such misclassification could delay timely intervention. 

Heart ailments manifest differently among populations

The study inferred that heart ailments manifest differently in Indian and South Asian populations, as factors like earlier onset of disease, higher prevalence of diabetes, distinct fat distribution, genetic predisposition, pollution and lifestyle stressors, all contribute to a unique risk profile. Consequently, existing global models tend to underestimate actual risk, potentially leading to missed opportunities for diagnosis, prevention and treatment. 

Experts calls for indigenous solutions

Notably, even the best performing model, the PREVENT score, failed to identify a large proportion of patients who ended up suffering heart attacks later. Additionally, most tools grouped patients into a broad ‘moderate-risk’ category, turning clinical decisions into a tough chapter. The researchers called for the urgent need to introduce India-specific or South Asia-focused risk calculators that better reflect regional health patterns.

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