Rohan Umak
Monsoon 2026 news: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and private forecaster Skymet Weather have predicted below-normal rainfall for the June-September 2026 season on Monday, officials said. While the projections differ marginally, both agencies have agreed that precipitation is likely to fall short of the Long Period Average (LPA), raising fresh concerns for agriculture, water availability and rural consumption.
Key differences in IMD, Skymet forecasts
On one hand, the IMD has estimated seasonal rainfall at 92% of the LPA, with a margin of error of ±5%, which falls in the ‘below-normal category.’ In contrast, Skymet has projected rainfall at 94% of LPA (close to 817 mm), also with a similar error margin. Despite the slight variation, both forecasts indicate a subdued monsoon. Skymet cautioned that rainfall distribution, particularly in the latter half of the season, may be uneven and erratic.
Monsoon 2026 news: El Nino threat looms large
A pivotal factor shaping this year’s monsoon outlook is the anticipated emergence of El Nino conditions. As per IMD Director General M Mohapatra, the current weak La Nina phase is heading towards neutrality, with El Nino likely to develop by June 2026. Notably, such conditions weaken India’s downpours by disrupting atmospheric circulation. Skymet has also echoed the assessment, warning that El Nino may intensify through the monsoon and into the post-monsoon period.
IOD may bring respite
However, both agencies have flagged a mitigating factor in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A positive IOD phase is expected during the latter half of the monsoon, which could enhance rainfall and partially neutralise El Nino’s ill effects.
Uneven rainfall distribution on the cards
Owing to the aforementioned conditions, rainfall patterns are expected to vary significantly across regions. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country, with some exceptions in the Northeast, Northwest and southern Peninsular regions, where precipitation may remain normal or above normal. Skymet has weighed in with a more detailed outlook, predicting above-normal rainfall in eastern and Northeastern India, deficient rainfall across Northern, Western and Central regions, and near-normal rainfall over the Southern peninsula.
It is noteworthy that key agricultural states like Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan may suffer from rainfall deficits during peak sowing months, stepping up risks for crop yields and rural livelihoods.
As monsoon remains the backbone of India’s agrarian economy, a below-normal season could weigh heavily on farm output and rural demand. Experts have warned that uneven rainfall could lead to complications in the crop cycles, making this year a challenging one for the agricultural sector.
